The Trump Election: Third Parties and Related

by William Minter, Editor, AfricaFocus Bulletin

Page text last updated: March 26 2017 (date each entry added to database can be found in database).

Since the week after the election, I have been tracking, and archiving in a simple database, articles, books, and monographs for 21 "intersecting explanations" for the election outcome. As David Leonhardt noted in a New York Times op-ed, "One of the sillier aspects of postelection analysis is the notion that any one factor determined the result." I argue that instead, there are many factors that acted intersectionally to produce the outcome. In analyzing which were more important, how they interacted, and what implications there are for strategy, that complex intersectionality must be taken into account.

For an overview of the database, and links to sources on 21 distinct intersecting explanations, visit

For sources highlighting the broad context of third parties and related, such as those who decided not to vote, see database records below.

Despite the potential impact in narrow races that tipped the election, this possible factor has been little discussed in detailed analyses. It is particularly difficult to analyze given that such "missing votes" (whether Jill Stein, Evan McMullin, or non-voters) might have gone for either Clinton or Trump, and the net effect is very difficult to sort out.

The other more specific explanation most closely intertwined with this one is voter suppression. But this is distinct since these voters deprived of their right to vote were clearly disproportionately Democratic.



Books and Working Papers

This page is part of the No Easy Victories website.